EV market projections: Part I - OEM capacity production and vision

cars21.com - Everything Electric

28 August 2012experts added their view about EV market developments over the last years, a variety of forecasts for 2015, 2020 or beyond emerged, creating more market insecurity than clarity, it seemed. This first article tries to add some facts regarding the current EV industry production capacity, and also the medium/long term companies’ visions.

General Motors (GM) was planning to sell 60,000 Volt/Ampera in 2012, but the US market is not getting as much traction as the European market does for PHEVs, and GM had to stop for several weeks the production of the Volt to save costs. According to Automotive News, the company is again about to idle its plant for 4 weeks in September/October. In Europe the Opel Ampera has high demand and the Ampera sales should reach 15,000-20,000 in 2012 (Opel’s objective was 10,000).

GM was announcing last year that its production capacity would ramp up progressively in the next years to triple or quadruple comparing to the 60,000 target set for 2012, meaning the company could annually sell close to 250,000 Volt/Ampera by 2015.

Ford has experienced some delays with its electric vehicle line launch, postponing therefore the sales, but the company is now ready to commercialise its PHEVs. The company has announced they will produce 100,000 EVs annually, starting in 2013. Ford’s EV market vision? Hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and all-electric cars will account for as much as 25 per cent of new vehicle sales by 2020.

Renault-Nissan Alliance is keeping its strong position of selling a total of 1.5 million electric vehicles by 2016. If the 2012 projections of 50,000 might sounds quite low compared to the 2016 target, it is because the Alliance is expecting much of the volume to be made by the Renault ZOE, which will be available sometime next year. Carlos Ghosn, Renault-Nissan CEO, also thinks that 10 per cent of new car sales will be full electric cars by 2020.

Tesla Motors is following its own path, with the release of the Tesla Model S end of June 2012, which is expected to represent 90 percent of the company revenues this year. The company plans to sell 5,000 EVs this year and 20,000 in 2013.

Tesla has also worked with Toyota on the RAV4, now coming to the market. The initial partnership is set for 2,600 cars, but if the car is well received and orders come in large numbers, the companies have the room to extend the production up to 25,000 cars, according to Toyota’s Executive Program Manager. Tesla’s EV vision? Elon Musk, Tesla CEO, is expecting 50% of new car sales to be full electric cars by 2032.

BMW is delivering on its electric vehicle commercialization plan. After the trials with the MiniE and the ActiveE, they will start producing the i3 and i8, expected for late 2013 – early 2014. BMW has said they will be able to produce 100,000 cars annually, both full electric or with range extenders. What is still unclear is the i1 and i5 which are planned for now in 2015 (i5) and 2016 (i1).

Toyota will offer both plug-in hybrids and all-electric cars. Toyota is expecting to sell 15,000 Prius Plug-in hybrids this year. Toyota is also selling the new battery-electric SUV, the RAV4 EV, with a 100-mile electric range.

Mitsubishi is targeting 30,000 sales in 2013, and keep a strong position in the EV sector with its i-Miev being sold through Mitsubishi but also Citroën and Peugeot brands, with an agreement on 100,000 EVs. However, PSA Group did think the EV market would move faster, and Mitsubishi has decided to temporarily halt production of the rebadged i-MiEVs. “This is a matter of PSA adjusting its orders to market demand,” a Mitsubishi Motors spokesman told Automotive News”. Mitsubishi plans that full electric vehicles will represent 20% of its total production by 2020.

Fisker, currently known with its luxury sedan Karma, is also expected to commercialise a second extended range electric car by 2013-2014, the Atlantic (Project Nina), expected to reach at least a production of 100,000 vehicles by 2015.

Mahindra REVA has recently launched their new electric car, the NXR, and has announced that they aim to produce 30 000 electric cars per year as of 2015.

Scientists develop lithium-ion battery that charges 120 times faster than normal

Scientists develop lithium-ion battery that charges 120 times faster than normal

• By Sebastian Anthony on August 17, 2012 at 7:11 am

A group of Korean scientists, working at the Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST), have developed a fast-charge lithium-ion battery that can be recharged 30 to 120 times faster than conventional li-ion batteries. The team believes it can build a battery pack for electric vehicles that can be fully charged inless than a minute.

One of the main issues with rechargeable batteries is that they take longer to recharge as their physical volume grows. When you recharge a battery, it charges from the outside in — so the fatter the battery, the longer it takes. You can somewhat avoid this by breaking larger batteries into smaller individual cells, but that technique only gets you so far.

The Korean method takes the cathode material — standard lithium manganese oxide (LMO) in this case — and soaks it in a solution containing graphite. Then, by carbonizing the graphite-soaked LMO, the graphite turns into a dense network of conductive traces that run throughout the cathode. This new cathode is then packaged normally, with an electrolyte and graphite anode, to create the fast-charging li-ion battery. Other factors, such as the battery’s energy density and cycle life seem to remain unchanged.

These networks of carbonized graphite effectively act like blood vessels, allowing every part of the battery to recharge at the same time — thus speeding up recharge by 30 to 120 times.

Now, for all intents and purposes, this is a standard lithium-ion battery that could be used in smartphones and laptops — but the network of conductive traces does increase the overall size of the battery, so it’s probably better suited for use in electric vehicles (EVs). Obviously, an EV that can be recharged in under a minute is pretty crazy — though it still only brings them in-line with their gas-guzzling cousins. Being able to charge quickly is convenient, but it doesn’t get around the fact that li-ion battery packs are incredibly expensive — and the Korean carbonized LMO battery certainly won’t be cheap.

I could see fast-charge batteries as being a nice option for smartphone and laptop users, though: You could have a normal battery and a fast-charge battery, and switch in whichever one makes most sense for your daily routine. Fast-charge batteries could be convenient in wireless mice and keyboards, and other gizmos, too.

Finally, just thinking out loud: The battery in a Tesla Roadster stores 56 kWh of electric energy. To recharge that in under a minute would require an awful lot of power and some very thick cables, right?

Keeping electric-vehicle batteries cool

Keeping electric-vehicle batteries cool

By: Karel Smrcka

27th July 2012 

Batteries provide the ‘fuel’ that drives electric cars – in effect, the vehicles’ lifeblood.

If batteries are to have a long service life, overheating must be avoided. A battery’s ‘comfort zone’ lies between 20 ºC and 35 ºC. But even a Sunday drive in the midday heat of summer can push a battery’s temperature well beyond that range. The damage caused can be serious, as operating a battery at a temperature of 45 ºC instead of 35 ºC halves its service life.

Batteries are expensive – a new battery can cost as much as half the price of the entire vehicle. That is why it is important to keep them cool. Thus far, conventional cooling systems have not reached their full potential. They are either not cooled at all – which is the case with those that are simply exchanged for a fully charged battery at the ‘service station’ – or are air-cooled. But air can absorb only very little heat and is also a poor heat conductor. What’s more, air cooling requires big spaces between the battery cells to allow sufficient fresh air to circulate between them. Water-cooling systems are still in their infancy. Though their thermal capacity exceeds that of air-cooling systems and they are better at conducting heat away, their downside is the limited supply of water in the system, compared with the essentially limitless amount of air that can flow through a battery.

In future, another option will be available for keeping batteries cool – a coolant called CryoSol-plus – a dispersion that mixes water and paraffin, along with stabilising tensides and a sash of the antifreeze agent glykol. The advantage is that CryoSol-plus can absorb three times as much heat as water and functions better as a buffer in extreme situations like trips on the freeway at the height of summer. This means that the holding tank of the coolant can be much smaller than that of water – saving both weight and space under the hood.

In addition, CryoSol is good at conducting heat away, moving it quickly from the battery cells into the coolant. With additional costs of just €50 to €100, the new cooling system is only marginally more expensive than water cooling systems. The coolant was developed by German researchers at the Fraunhofer Institute for Environmental Safety and Energy Tech- nology, in Oberhausen.

As CryoSol-plus absorbs heat, the solid paraffin droplets within it melt, storing the heat in the process. When the solution cools, the droplets revert to their solid form. Scientists call such substances phase-change materials, or PCMs.

“The main problem we had to overcome during development was to make the dispersion stable,” explains Tobias Kannels, a scientist at the institute.

The individual solid droplets of paraffin had to be prevented from agglomerating or – as they are lighter than water – collecting on the surface of the dispersion. They need to be evenly distributed throughout the water. Tensides serve to stabilise the dispersion, depositing themselves on the paraffin droplets and forming a type of protective coating.

“To find out which tensides are best suited to the purpose, we examined the dispersion in three different stress situations. How long can it be stored without deteriorating? How well does it withstand mechanical stresses? And how stable is it when exposed to thermal stresses – for instance, when the paraffin particles freeze and then thaw again?” asks Kappets.

Other properties of the dispersion that the researchers are optimising include its heat capacity, its ability to transfer heat and its flow capability.

The scientists’ next task will be to carry out field tests, trying out the coolant in an experimental vehicle.

Edited by: Martin Zhuwakinyu

Industry says there will be enough lithium - but will there be enough graphite?

cars21.com - Everything Electric

The Leaf's battery needs 20kg of lithium but 40kg of graphite, the Tesla Roadster's battery needs even 100kg of graphite. While discussions about the scarcity of lithium were vivid 1-2 years ago and have now ebbed down, nobody has discussed yet the supply of graphite, indispensable anode material, to facilitate a large uptake of electric mobility.

While EV uptake might be not as fast as forecast last year, investments into battery plants are still high. GS Yuasa invests $300 (~ €245) million to expand their battery production facilities, LG Chem invests the same amount in a li-ion battery plant in the US to supply the Chevy Volt, Russia had announced to put $420 (~ €342) miilion into completing the world's largest li-ion battery plant.....

But if only 5% of cars worldwide were to become electric, current graphite production would need to double, says Greg Bowes, CEO of Northern Graphite (see exclusive interview tomorrow), who has a graphite mine development project in Bissett Creek, Ontario, Canada.

Graphite - the anode material of choice

Graphite has already been the anode material of choice for the alkaline batteries in the 1950ies, passing by the nickel hydrogen batteries in the 1970ies, the nickel metal-hydride in the 1980ies and finally the lithium-ion batteries since the 1990ies. Batteries are the fastest growing end use for graphite and EVs hold the potential to see graphite demand boom.

Why is graphite so popular as anode material? 

The anode requires a porous carbon material and graphite is the optimum match. Graphite is also:

• easy to machine (not true of natural graphite, only synthetic)
• very resistant to thermal shock
• does not melt in the battery (melting point at above 3,600°C) which reduces wear
• has a density 5x lower than copper and is therefore lighter
• is insoluble in water, acids & bases;
• is not corrosive

How much graphite does one EV battery pack need? 

There are 3-10 kgs of graphite in the average HEV and 25-50 kgs in an EV. Estimates are that increasing demand for lithium carbonate will reach 286,000 tonnes by 2020. This would mean a six fold increase in annual flake graphite production to provide material for that many batteries. Graphite demand in li-ion batteries in 2008 was already estimated at 44,000 tonnes, i.e. ~ 10% of the flake graphite market - with a persisting upwards trend.

The Nissan Leaf, for example, is equipped with a 24kWh battery pack containing 20 kg lithium carbonate and 40 kg graphite. The Tesla Roadster needs 100kg graphite for its 56kWh battery pack. The average recharge time of the Tesla Roadster is 3.5h, average range 400 km and average battery life 160,000km.

Only spherical (potato shaped) graphite can be used in batteries. This requires flake graphite to be upgraded to 99.95% purity - an expensive process that wastes 70% of the feedstock of flake graphite. Therefore, spherical graphite sells for more than 3 times the price of flake graphite. currently $6,000-8,000 (~ €4,900-6,500 per tonne.

World Production

China dominates world graphite production and represents 75% of total output. India is the second largest producer followed by Brazil, north Korea, Austria and Canada.

EVs always cheaper to charge than ICEs

According to a study from Northeast Group, 6% of all utilities located in the United States had implemented special electric vehicle (EV) tariffs as of the end of June 2012. Electricity tariffs designed specifically for EV charging are a key driver to EV adoption, as EV tariffs are cheaper than standard residential electricity tariffs.

The study, ”United States Smart Grid: Utility Electric Vehicle Tariffs,” includes a benchmark of the EV tariffs of ten different utilities in six different US states (California, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon and Texas).

“In all scenarios we studied, the costs to recharge an electric vehicle were cheaper than fueling a gasoline-powered car. In the most likely EV charging scenarios, costs were approximately one-tenth to half the costs of fueling a conventional vehicle with gasoline,” according to Northeast Group, LLC.

Eleven US states concerned so far

In just the past year, utilities in Arizona, California, Indiana, Michigan and Virginia have added new EV tariffs. In Hawaii, Michigan and Nevada, more than 90% of state residents already have access to EV tariffs through their various utilities. California and Georgia are next in line, where more than 80% of state residents have access to EV tariffs. The large California utilities were early pioneers in launching EV tariffs. As EV numbers grow over the coming years, EV penetration rates are likely to be higher in states with utilities offering their customers special tariffs.

Smart charging without smart grids

EV tariffs offered by utilities have been structured in two main forms to-date: time-of-use (TOU) tariffs and flat rate tariffs. TOU tariffs typically provide for cheaper overnight and off-peak rates for those recharging EVs. Flat rate tariffs charge customers one fixed monthly fee for recharging EVs. In addition, sliding scale tariffs – where rates increase with usage - can also be incorporated in some form with both tariff structures above.

“With the TOU tariffs, customers receive cheaper rates when they charge during off-peak times (typically nights and weekends). With the flat rate tariffs – e.g.$40 (€33) per month – all charging is typically covered. Utilities are now studying which tariffs will best accommodate the increasing number of electric vehicles on US roads” according to Northeast Group, LLC. “. EV tariffs can save approximately half the cost per year for EV owners, compared with standard electricity tariffs.“

State of art in Europe

Nothing exists at the European-level regarding EV tariff. However, off-peak rates exist and OEMs have tried to make it easy for EV owners to set up the charging of their EV at a chosen time through smart meters or via a smartphone application such as Nissan.

Nevertheless, there is interest in Europe for having EV tariffs implemented, such as Narec's Chief Technical Officer,Steve MacDonald, who, speaking at Utility Week's electric vehicle (EV) conference in June 2012, said that “energy suppliers should offer consumers home charging points with smart functionality and a specific tariff for EV owners to help support the take up of EVs.”

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Headline Story | equities.com

Qualcomm and Renault Announce Memorandum of Understanding on Wireless Electric Vehicle Charging Technology

 | equities.com

Qualcomm Incorporated (NASDAQ: QCOM) and Renault s.a.s. today announced a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) concerning their intended cooperation on the London trial of Qualcomm Halo™ Wireless Electric Vehicle Charging (WEVC) technology, and their intent with respect to conducting preliminary studies of the integration of this technology into Renault vehicles. Renault will also join the London trial steering committee.

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