EV market projections: Part I - OEM capacity production and vision

cars21.com - Everything Electric

28 August 2012experts added their view about EV market developments over the last years, a variety of forecasts for 2015, 2020 or beyond emerged, creating more market insecurity than clarity, it seemed. This first article tries to add some facts regarding the current EV industry production capacity, and also the medium/long term companies’ visions.

General Motors (GM) was planning to sell 60,000 Volt/Ampera in 2012, but the US market is not getting as much traction as the European market does for PHEVs, and GM had to stop for several weeks the production of the Volt to save costs. According to Automotive News, the company is again about to idle its plant for 4 weeks in September/October. In Europe the Opel Ampera has high demand and the Ampera sales should reach 15,000-20,000 in 2012 (Opel’s objective was 10,000).

GM was announcing last year that its production capacity would ramp up progressively in the next years to triple or quadruple comparing to the 60,000 target set for 2012, meaning the company could annually sell close to 250,000 Volt/Ampera by 2015.

Ford has experienced some delays with its electric vehicle line launch, postponing therefore the sales, but the company is now ready to commercialise its PHEVs. The company has announced they will produce 100,000 EVs annually, starting in 2013. Ford’s EV market vision? Hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and all-electric cars will account for as much as 25 per cent of new vehicle sales by 2020.

Renault-Nissan Alliance is keeping its strong position of selling a total of 1.5 million electric vehicles by 2016. If the 2012 projections of 50,000 might sounds quite low compared to the 2016 target, it is because the Alliance is expecting much of the volume to be made by the Renault ZOE, which will be available sometime next year. Carlos Ghosn, Renault-Nissan CEO, also thinks that 10 per cent of new car sales will be full electric cars by 2020.

Tesla Motors is following its own path, with the release of the Tesla Model S end of June 2012, which is expected to represent 90 percent of the company revenues this year. The company plans to sell 5,000 EVs this year and 20,000 in 2013.

Tesla has also worked with Toyota on the RAV4, now coming to the market. The initial partnership is set for 2,600 cars, but if the car is well received and orders come in large numbers, the companies have the room to extend the production up to 25,000 cars, according to Toyota’s Executive Program Manager. Tesla’s EV vision? Elon Musk, Tesla CEO, is expecting 50% of new car sales to be full electric cars by 2032.

BMW is delivering on its electric vehicle commercialization plan. After the trials with the MiniE and the ActiveE, they will start producing the i3 and i8, expected for late 2013 – early 2014. BMW has said they will be able to produce 100,000 cars annually, both full electric or with range extenders. What is still unclear is the i1 and i5 which are planned for now in 2015 (i5) and 2016 (i1).

Toyota will offer both plug-in hybrids and all-electric cars. Toyota is expecting to sell 15,000 Prius Plug-in hybrids this year. Toyota is also selling the new battery-electric SUV, the RAV4 EV, with a 100-mile electric range.

Mitsubishi is targeting 30,000 sales in 2013, and keep a strong position in the EV sector with its i-Miev being sold through Mitsubishi but also Citroën and Peugeot brands, with an agreement on 100,000 EVs. However, PSA Group did think the EV market would move faster, and Mitsubishi has decided to temporarily halt production of the rebadged i-MiEVs. “This is a matter of PSA adjusting its orders to market demand,” a Mitsubishi Motors spokesman told Automotive News”. Mitsubishi plans that full electric vehicles will represent 20% of its total production by 2020.

Fisker, currently known with its luxury sedan Karma, is also expected to commercialise a second extended range electric car by 2013-2014, the Atlantic (Project Nina), expected to reach at least a production of 100,000 vehicles by 2015.

Mahindra REVA has recently launched their new electric car, the NXR, and has announced that they aim to produce 30 000 electric cars per year as of 2015.

Scientists develop lithium-ion battery that charges 120 times faster than normal

Scientists develop lithium-ion battery that charges 120 times faster than normal

• By Sebastian Anthony on August 17, 2012 at 7:11 am

A group of Korean scientists, working at the Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST), have developed a fast-charge lithium-ion battery that can be recharged 30 to 120 times faster than conventional li-ion batteries. The team believes it can build a battery pack for electric vehicles that can be fully charged inless than a minute.

One of the main issues with rechargeable batteries is that they take longer to recharge as their physical volume grows. When you recharge a battery, it charges from the outside in — so the fatter the battery, the longer it takes. You can somewhat avoid this by breaking larger batteries into smaller individual cells, but that technique only gets you so far.

The Korean method takes the cathode material — standard lithium manganese oxide (LMO) in this case — and soaks it in a solution containing graphite. Then, by carbonizing the graphite-soaked LMO, the graphite turns into a dense network of conductive traces that run throughout the cathode. This new cathode is then packaged normally, with an electrolyte and graphite anode, to create the fast-charging li-ion battery. Other factors, such as the battery’s energy density and cycle life seem to remain unchanged.

These networks of carbonized graphite effectively act like blood vessels, allowing every part of the battery to recharge at the same time — thus speeding up recharge by 30 to 120 times.

Now, for all intents and purposes, this is a standard lithium-ion battery that could be used in smartphones and laptops — but the network of conductive traces does increase the overall size of the battery, so it’s probably better suited for use in electric vehicles (EVs). Obviously, an EV that can be recharged in under a minute is pretty crazy — though it still only brings them in-line with their gas-guzzling cousins. Being able to charge quickly is convenient, but it doesn’t get around the fact that li-ion battery packs are incredibly expensive — and the Korean carbonized LMO battery certainly won’t be cheap.

I could see fast-charge batteries as being a nice option for smartphone and laptop users, though: You could have a normal battery and a fast-charge battery, and switch in whichever one makes most sense for your daily routine. Fast-charge batteries could be convenient in wireless mice and keyboards, and other gizmos, too.

Finally, just thinking out loud: The battery in a Tesla Roadster stores 56 kWh of electric energy. To recharge that in under a minute would require an awful lot of power and some very thick cables, right?